So much still left to ponder in Derby

by Johnny Ward , 02 June 2009

The humming and hawing, as they say in Ireland, about what John Murtagh will ride in the Investec Derby has frustrated many.

Punters alien to stable information - and perhaps those privy - can only be bamboozled by gambles on no less than three Aidan O'Brien-trained horses in the space of a week.

I understand that ground conditions at the track will be key to Murtagh's eventual choice. Surely he still has doubts about Rip Van Winkle getting home.

Masterofthehorse was the 'plunge horse' late last week and he remains of interest, having just the one run this year when ridden to finish his race in the Chester Vase.

Murtagh was castigated for that ride - and in isolation it was a bad one - but he was performing to instructions with a view to winning the race. By 'the race', I mean the Derby, not the Chester Vase.

Whatever, Masterofthehorse did not pick up with blistering pace or anything of the kind. He recalls the adage: "If you have a horse with no stamina doubts for the Derby, he will not be fast enough."

Whatever the truth of that, I envisage Masterofthehorse running well and advertising his credentials as a Leger contender.

Black Bear Island is hovering around the 8-1 mark and is a very serious contender, though he probably lacks the pace and class of Fame And Glory.

They say if you have a number of Derby contenders, you have none - but that does not really hold up to analysis. The Ballydoyle horses improve so much - and to varying degrees - as the year progresses, they realise that running as many horses as they can in the race makes sense.

I can see this outcome: Murtagh to ride Rip Van Winkle, Rip Van Winkle to finish out of the places, Fame And Glory to lead home the Ballydoyle horses and Gan Amhras to win the race.


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