Firstly I am writing this on Sunday, before Tuesday night’s games so of course come Wednesday morning it may have all changed! Wanted to get that in right at the top!
The issue that seems to be coming up at the moment is whether it’s better to have the points on the board, to have therefore played more games and be topping the league – like Burton, or have games in hand, confidence-building Cup runs but fewer points – like Histon, Torquay and Kidderminster. As a fan myself I always like the idea of having games in hand, but that’s because I always assume my team will win them. But suddenly you can find yourself with two points instead of the six you’d hopefully predicted and you are still left with ground to make up but with no games in which to do it, plus you then have a ton of fixtures built up because of the cup run. Suddenly your destiny is no longer in your own hands.
Not all clubs are the same
For me, you have to take every club on what their priorities are for that season to make a judgement. Burton are in the perfect position. They have two goals this season – the first is promotion and then way behind that is success in the FA Trophy. But we are talking way behind. They sit three points clear of second spot as I write and seven points ahead of third place. And you can bet your last pound Nigel Clough and chairman Ben Robinson are exactly where they want to be, even though others have games in hand. And it’s because Burton are at a different stage of their development to a club like Histon. Steve Fallon and Gareth Baldwin I bet are also exactly where they want to be. They need the FA Cup run more than Burton do. The money will change the club, possibly forever if they can get to the fourth round as well. It will set them up to become a Burton of the future…a club that lends its facilities to weddings and functions as well as welcoming fans to an easy accessible, highly professional stadium. But will Histon’s Cup success end up meaning the fixtures become so congested come the spring that a run of poor form could cost them dear? Would they take a play-off place or a fourth round tie at Old Trafford? I think for this season, the latter would be brilliant. As has been proved at all sorts of levels in football and it applies to clubs, teams, players and managers, you have to be ready to make the step up because it will come back to bite you if you do it too quickly. Roy Keane, possibly Paul Ince are examples of managers who did it too soon. Whereas in terms of clubs – take Exeter. It took them a while to return to the Football League but they were absolutely ready for it last May. That Manchester United FA Cup tie set them back on solid ground and they built from there. Are Histon absolutely ready for League football? Right now I don’t think so but give them a couple more seasons, some play-off experiences and let the money sink in and the timing might then be right.
In terms of Torquay and Kidderminster I think it is such a hard call. Of course both are former league clubs and are more than ready to return off the field. I fear that the cup runs for Torquay – if they do well in the FA Trophy too – could scupper their promotion chances. It certainly had an affect last season. The money from that BBC live game with Yeovil was warmly welcomed as was the Wembley trip for the FA Trophy final but that meant they had big games to prepare for in March and April while Aldershot were already well clear at the top. I know The Shots got to the FA Trophy semis and won the Setanta Shield but no FA Cup success meant no fixture congestion. By the time they did have a game or two in hand after the FA Trophy semis with Ebbsfleet, they were already flying. I remember around late Jan/early Feb of last season I looked at the table and Torquay still had about three games in hand, and if they had won them all would have gone clear at the top. Perhaps if they’d played those games in hand back in September they might have got the nine points but their form was already taking a dip so when those games came – I remember one was at home to Altrincham which they should have won – they failed to, picking up a point instead. And suddenly they found The Shots clear out in front with the same number of games played.
So overall it’s about what the club needs. Burton need league football now, it’s the right time for them, they are good to go. Histon need money, to get their name on the map and the play-offs would be a bonus – an aim which they are now fulfilling…so both those clubs are sitting pretty. While Torquay and Kidderminster arguably need to make a decision…is it the time for Paul Buckle and Mark Yates to do the brave thing and prioritise now or wonder in April whether their cup success was worth it? There’s no guarantee of a big boy in the fourth round if they reach it so do they really want to go out of the FA Cup to a Birmingham or a Norwich and then be sitting on that Wembley field come May watching another team reach the Promised Land?
Cup duty
This week I’m off Blue Square Premier duty as it’s FA Cup replay week. I’ll be at the A-Line Arena on Wednesday night for Kettering’s second round replay with Notts County and then the following week it’s a busy one with Blyth v Bournemouth on the Tuesday night (the 16th) and then Altrincham v Burton in the BSP on the Thursday. Of course in between all that you can catch me on Football Matters – live every Monday night from 10pm I talk all things Barclays Premier League with my co-presenter James Richardson and a panel of top guests as well as a live studio audience. Do join us…and any points you want to make email them to footballmatters@setanta.com
To Ian Lawn – Hi Ian, Yes Leeds looked not great at all at Histon and there form since then has continued to nosedive. I don’t what you thought but from the first whistle Gary McAllister looked like he’d rather be anywhere but the GlassWorld stadium dugout. It was great to see!
To Mr Grumpy – Hi there, I think they definitely have the strength in depth and the talent but I wonder whether the unbeaten streak will be something they might have to shake off. Lose one and win the next 3 is better than 4 draws in a row and they have now drawn with Woking and Cambridge.
To Elliott – Mark Ellis did well with his goal the other week didn’t he? Not sure the team would survive League 1, but I think they’d give League 2 a great crack. As long as your manager isn’t tempted away by Oxford…but I think he will prove too expensive. If Buckle goes I don’t think you’ll go up. But I don’t think he’ll go so I think you will! Your surname’s not Benyon by any chance is it?!!
To RDFC4eva – Up to 8th as I write, just 5 points off the Play Offs. And above Kettering! I have said recently that you and Wrexham are the teams to keep your eyes on at the moment. Quietly you are gaining ground all the time, you are by no means out of this though all 3 points at home to Barrow should have been the aim if you really are going to challenge. Having said that, Barrow are a good side so maybe you’ll take a point?
To Glyn – Hi there Glyn, I fear unless you find some consistency quickly that you are heading for another mid-table finish. You need to strengthen up front like you say but you still are only 8 points off the Play Offs which in December is no problem. But your run of results is just so up and down. You get those 2 wins over Barrow and Crawley – both very hard teams to beat and then follow them up with a draw, a defeat and then the win at Weymouth. You are too up and down right now in my opinion to make a real push. But I know there is the capability in the squad, definitely.