Ian Botham’s claim that England will win next year’s Ashes “easily” could well rank among the most ill-judged and foolish of sporting predictions.
I have a feeling his words could come back to haunt him in the same way that Glenn McGrath lived to regret his cocky assertion that Australia would win the 2005 series 5-0.
Botham’s confidence is based on Australia’s performances in the ongoing series in India and their struggles to replace such totemic figures as Shane Warne, McGrath and Adam Gilchrist.
The Australians have looked a shadow of their former selves and look like losing out to an Indian side boasting a potent blend of youth and experience. But take a closer look and it isn’t hard to see that Australia still possess the armoury to cause Kevin Pietersen a fair few sleepless nights over the next six months.
Firstly, their batting remains a formidable unit. Matthew Hayden may be a fading force but Simon Katich has emerged as a player capable of leading from the front and building an innings. With Ricky Ponting at three and Mike Hussey still averaging 66 from nearly 30 tests, there is no better engine room in the game.
And any side that has Brett Lee coming in at number nine will be very tough to bowl out twice.
Australia’s pace attack of Lee, Stuart Clark and Mitchell Johnson has struggled in India, but the sub-continent has long been a graveyard for pacemen. And just when you were beginning to chuckle at the paucity of their post-Warne spin options, up steps Jason Krejza to snare eight wickets in his debut.
Don’t get me wrong, Australia have problems, but what better way to fire up Ponting and co than to make such a silly statement as Botham's?
And when have Australia ever been beaten easily, at any sport, anywhere? It just isn’t in their DNA. Australia are undergoing a rebuilding process and certainly don’t have the swagger of old but England are far from the finished article themselves.
The batsmen seldom perform as a unit, the wicketkeeping position is a revolving door and the bowlers, while improving, are by no means the settled and sizzling quartet that England unleashed on the Aussies to memorable effect in 2005.
And lest we forget, Peter Moores’s side have actually lost three of their last five series, their only victories coming against a very ordinary New Zealand team.
Surely the sensible thing would be to judge England at the end of the India series, so that we can draw direct comparisons with Australia’s displays and start to form a better picture of how the two teams measure up.
I expect a close-fought engaging contest next year between two sides still struggling to scale to recent heights. Let’s just hope Beefy isn’t made to sprinkle his own words on his Shredded Wheat.